Western Australia top-performing economy again

[Admin]

CommSec's quarterly 'State of the States' report was released yesterday and once again, Western Australia has again been named the strongest economy among the states and territories.

 

The report analyses eight key indicators:

 

• economic growth
  
• retail spending
  
• equipment investment
  
• unemployment
  
• construction work done
  
• population growth
  
• housing finance
  
• dwelling commencements
  

 

Western Australia remains the top-performing economy in the nation with little slippage in the ranking over the past three months. However the big change has been the lift in the ranking of the ACT to second while the Northern Territory economy has slipped to third strongest. There has been little change in the ranking of other states with South Australia and Tasmania under-performing other economies at present.

 

Western Australia comes out top on three of the eight criteria – housing finance, retail spending and equipment investment.

 

Western Australia is still second on three of the eight indicators, third on dwelling starts and fifth on unemployment.

 

 

[img2=right]http://www.perthpoms.com/images/commsec/economicgrowth.png[/img2]Economic Growth

 

The Northern Territory continues to lead the rankings on economic activity. Activity in the ‘top end’ is almost 40 per cent above its ‘normal’ or decade-average level of output.

 

Next strongest is Western Australia, with output around 33 per cent higher than the decade average level of output.

 

Then follows Queensland (up 18.3 per cent) from the ACT (up 17.3 per cent).

 

 

 

 

 

 

[img2=right]http://www.perthpoms.com/images/commsec/retail.png[/img2]Retail Trade

 

Western Australia retains top spot on the retail rankings with spending in the March quarter 25.2 per cent above decade average levels.

 

Solid population growth, a lift in home purchases and firm wage growth underpin the relative strength in consumer spending.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[img2=right]http://www.perthpoms.com/images/commsec/equipment.png[/img2]Equipment Investment

 

Western Australia continues to be well above other states and territories when it comes to equipment investment.

 

Spending in the March quarter was almost 75 per cent above “normal” – or decade-average levels but down from 103.2 per cent in the December quarter.

 

Next placed were the ACT (up 36.6 per cent) and Queensland (up 33.4per cent) followed by NSW (up 15.7 per cent), Victoria (up 5.2 per cent) and Northern Territory (up 4.5 per cent).

 

 

 

 

 

[img2=right]http://www.perthpoms.com/images/commsec/construction.png[/img2]Construction Work

 

In all states/territories except Tasmania construction work is higher than decade averages. And there remains a large gap between the strongest states (the resource states) and weakest states (Tasmania).

 

In Tasmania, overall new construction work completed is 3.5 per cent below its decade average. By contrast construction work done in Northern Territory was almost 80 per cent above its decade average followed by Western Australia (up 66 per cent) and Queensland (up almost 53 per cent).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[img2=right]http://www.perthpoms.com/images/commsec/population.png[/img2]Population Growth

 

Western Australia is the clear leader in population growth. Not only is the annual growth rate of 3.47 per cent the strongest in the nation, it is also almost 46 per cent above the decade average.

 

But the actual leader in the rankings is the ACT. Annual population growth of 2.31per cent is the highest in 21 years and is almost 57 per cent above “normal’.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Housing Finance

 

In all but three states and territories, trend housing finance commitments are below decade averages – an improvement on the previous report when all economies had activity below decade averages. And encouragingly commitments in May were above year-ago levels in all but the Northern Territory.

 

In the strongest state of Western Australia, the number of housing finance commitments was 10 per cent above the decade-average level and commitments in May were 16.5 per cent higher than a year ago.

 

 

[img2=right]http://www.perthpoms.com/images/commsec/dwellings.png[/img2]Dwelling Starts

 

The Northern Territory is in the strongest position for new housing construction, with starts almost 54 per cent above decade averages. In addition in the March quarter the number of dwellings started was 27 per cent higher than a year earlier, although down from the 61.6 per cent annual growth in the December quarter.

 

In second spot was NSW, with starts over 16 per cent above decade averages. And t here is plenty of momentum with starts in the quarter up 33.4 per cent on a year ago – the best growth in three years.

 

In Western Australia, dwelling starts in the March quarter we re up 11.2 per cent on the ‘normal’ or “decade average” level

 

 

 

 

[img2=right]http://www.perthpoms.com/images/commsec/houseprices.png[/img2]Other Indicators

 

Real wages were positive in all economies in the March quarter except for the Northern Territory. Strongest growth occurred Tasmania at 2.2 percentage points, followed by Western

Australia (1.3 percentage points) and the ACT (1.2 percentage points).

 

Home prices are now higher than a year ago in all but Hobart (down 1.8 per cent). Strongest growth in home prices was in Darwin (up 6.1 per cent) followed by Perth (up 6.0 per cent) and

Sydney (up 5.6 per cent).

 

 

 

 

[img2=right]http://www.perthpoms.com/images/commsec/unemployment.png[/img2]Unemployment

 

NSW and the ACT arguably have the strongest job markets in the nation. While its trend unemployment rate of 5.5 per cent is not the lowest in the nation, the NSW jobless rate is just 5.1 per cent above the “normal” or decade average level.

 

In the ACT, trend unemployment has fallen from 4.5 per cent to 3.7 per cent over the past four months but this is 9.3 per cent above its decade average rate of 3.4 per cent.

 

In Victoria the 5.7 per cent jobless rate is 9.2 per cent above its decade average.

 

At the other end of the scale Tasmania’s 8.1 per cent jobless rate is the highest in the nation and up 36 per cent on the decade average.

 

The Northern Territory job market is next weakest – a significant turnaround over the last report. In the past six months the jobless rate has lifted from 4.0 per cent to 5.3 per cent and it is now 23 per cent above its decade average level of 4.3 per cent.

 

 

 

Other Western Australia News

 

Leading aircraft maker Airbus sees Perth along with seven other cities, joining the list of aviation 'mega-cities worldwide by 2021. Perth is expected to be amongst the cities that would host at least 10,000 long-haul passengers starting 2021

 

That would bring the number of aviation mega-cities to 67 hosting about 95 percent of long-haul traffic by 2021.

[StraighttothePoint]

All this is saying surely is WA are doing the best out of an overall dipping / cooling economy.

 

So basically if you have a good skilled job, and are well paid, have some cash in hand and can afford to live in WA because of all that then you are doing pretty well but if you have a lower paid job, little disposable income, are struggling to pay rent and therefore cannot save to get a mortgage then you are probably doing it tough and going backwards in real terms?

 

Does that about sum it up? If so one key indicator is the percentage of people in, or near, the second grouping. And I know you could say that about a lot of locations in the world but think what the above says, for me anway, is that economists can present information and statistics all day long but without a balanced response from within the community, e.g. non business related organisations and independant reporting, then it is hard to see where the actual truth lies.

 

Google "perth economy slowing" for the other side of the coin.

 

Don't mean to be negative but if people read this, especially the title, then it could be a bit misleading without the fuller set of facts.

[Give me a break!]

New migrants coming over would have to be skilled though wouldn't they? So therefore they will be paid well wouldn't they?

[StraighttothePoint]

Not sure where those statements take us to be honest. The answer is not always a yes to the first one and definatley not always a yes to the second.

[portlaunay]

New migrants coming over would have to be skilled though wouldn't they? So therefore they will be paid well wouldn't they?

 

Not necessarily. SME's still need skilled labour to survive or grow but don't necessarily have the ability to compete with the larger employers and pay high salaries.

[Greg]

Not necessarily. SME's still need skilled labour to survive or grow but don't necessarily have the ability to compete with the larger employers and pay high salaries.

 

Plus new migrants can tend to be underpaid, based partly on ignorance (the migrant not knowing the score) and partly on the old wa Experience thingy! I know my first employer took advantage of my ignorance, the second thought he was doing me a huge favour by employing an Englishman who had only been in the country a couple of years.

[Levi]

Hi Greg, I would like to ask you how did your first employer take advantage of you and your ignorance? Just to know what to expect and what might happen. Thanks!

[Rossmoyne]

New migrants coming over would have to be skilled though wouldn't they? So therefore they will be paid well wouldn't they?

 

If they can get a job, one would hope they would be paid according to their skills. However the job market is slowing right down. You also need to be aware that the unemployment figures are not accurate. People who work just one hour a week are classed as employed and so do not appear on any unemployment charts. The trend in WA is currently to employ people on casual contracts so you can dispose of their services easily. Also tradies are usually sub-contractors and not employed directly by relevant employers on a permanent basis.

[Admin]

Western Australia is still the country's top economy, but its dominance has slipped slightly.

 

CommSec's latest quarterly State of the States report (released today) shows the ACT has held onto second place, with very little to separate the Northern Territory, Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria.

There is then a gap to South Australia, leaving Tasmania as the worst-performing economy.

 

CommSec's chief economist Craig James said in the previous quarter, WA was the top economy in three of the eight economic indicators, but is now only dominating in one area - retail sales.

"We have seen improvement in Western Australia in things like the jobs market and also the housing market, so it's still at the top of the leader board," Mr James said.

"But we are seeing a transition of the growth leadership in Western Australia from the mining sector to the housing sector."

He said if WA were to lose top spot, it would be in 6-12 months' time.

 

Mr James said the Reserve Bank will welcome news that housing construction and demand for home loans is picking up across the country, as investment in the resources sector tapers off.

"We are seeing stronger growth in terms of dwelling starts, we're seeing stronger growth in terms of housing finance and in a number of the state and territory economies, we do have now dwelling starts which are above the longer-term average."